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9th Feb, 2026 12:00 AM
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BMI Measurement Timing Determines MASLD Prognosis

TOPLINE:

A high BMI measured after diagnosis of metabolic dysfunction-associated steatotic liver disease (MASLD) was associated with a lower mortality risk, whereas a high BMI before diagnosis or in early adulthood was associated with a higher mortality. Persistent obesity throughout adulthood conferred a significant increase in mortality risk compared with persistent non-obesity.

METHODOLOGY:

  • The relationship between MASLD and obesity is complex: Although patients with obesity often show better survival than those without obesity, many prior studies used a single BMI measurement after MASLD diagnosis, not accounting for weight changes over time.
  • Researchers analyzed patients with MASLD aged ≥ 40 years from three population cohorts: the National Health and Nutrition Examination Survey (NHANES) III (n = 2190), NHANES 1999-2018 (n = 5210), and UK Biobank (n = 8962), to assess how BMI at different adulthood stages, annual changes, and trajectories were associated with mortality outcomes.
  • BMI was recorded at several points, and those measurements were used to assess weight changes and long-term weight trajectories.
  • Long-term BMI trajectories were classified as persistent non-obesity, onset of mid-adulthood obesity, onset of early adulthood obesity, persistent obesity, and rapid increase in BMI.
  • The outcomes of interest were all-cause mortality and cause-specific mortality due to cardiovascular disease and cancer.

TAKEAWAY:

  • A higher BMI in mid-to-late adulthood or after a MASLD diagnosis was associated with a lower risk for all-cause mortality; however, a higher BMI in early adulthood or before diagnosis of MASLD was linked to a higher risk for all-cause mortality.
  • Modest annual gains in BMI (up to an average increase of 0.5) were generally associated with a lower risk for mortality, whereas annual increases exceeding 0.5 tended to elevate the risk.
  • The persistent obesity group had a higher risk for all-cause mortality than the persistent non-obesity group (hazard ratio [HR], 1.79; 95% CI, 1.10-2.89) and a markedly higher risk for cardiovascular mortality (HR, 3.49; 95% CI, 1.83-6.63); the rapid increase in BMI trajectory also had a higher risk for all-cause mortality.
  • Pre-diagnostic BMI showed a U-shaped association with the risk for all-cause mortality, with the risk increasing once BMI exceeded 30. The relationship between pre-diagnostic BMI and the risk for cancer-specific mortality was J-shaped, with the lowest risk near a BMI of 30 and a clearer rise in the risk at higher BMI values.

IN PRACTICE:

“By integrating BMI data across adulthood and disease stages, this study demonstrates a time-dependent association between obesity and MASLD outcomes, underscoring the clinical importance of lifetime weight history,” the authors of the study wrote.

SOURCE:

The study was led by Zhen Sun, Shanghai Jiao Tong University School of Medicine, Shanghai, China. It was published online in Clinical Gastroenterology and Hepatology.

LIMITATIONS:

Determining the exact timing of the onset of MASLD is difficult. The use of self-reported historical BMI introduced potential recall bias. In addition, as an observational study, residual confounding could not be completely eliminated.

DISCLOSURES:

The study was funded by the National Key R&D Program of China, the National Natural Science Foundation of China, and the Shanghai Municipal Health Commission. The authors reported having no conflicts of interest.

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This article was created using several editorial tools, including AI, as part of the process. Human editors reviewed this content before publication.


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