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17th Apr, 2026 12:00 AM
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CKM Syndrome Stages May Predict Risk for HF in Older Adults

TOPLINE:

In a large, community-based cohort of older adults, most participants had poor cardiovascular-kidney-metabolic (CKM) health, with higher CKM stages linked to greater adverse cardiac remodeling progression and a more than eightfold higher risk for incident heart failure (HF).

METHODOLOGY:

  • Researchers analyzed data from a cohort of older adults aged 66-90 years enrolled in the Atherosclerosis Risk in Communities (ARIC) study, spanning visit cycles 5 (2011-2013; n = 5646) and 7 (2018-2019; n = 2434), to assess the prevalence of CKM syndrome stages and their associations with changes in cardiac structure, cardiac functional decline, and the risk for incident HF.
  • At both visits, participants who underwent echocardiography were categorized by CKM syndrome stage: stage 0 (no CKM risk factors), stage 1 (excess adiposity or prediabetes), stage 2 (metabolic risk factors or chronic kidney disease [CKD]), stage 3 (subclinical cardiovascular disease [CVD] with excess or dysfunc­tional adiposity, other metabolic risk factors, or CKD), and stage 4 (clinical CVD with excess or dysfunctional adiposity, other metabolic risk factors, or CKD).
  • The outcomes were incident HF and a composite of incident HF and all-cause death.

TAKEAWAY:

  • Overall, 96% of participants had CKM stage 2 or higher, reflecting poor CKM health across the cohort. At visit 5, only 2.2% had CKM stage 0 or 1, whereas 8.1% had CKM stage 2, 56% had CKM stage 3, and 32.6% had CKM stage 4.
  • Over a median follow-up period of 9 years, 13.6% of participants assessed at visit 5 developed incident HF, with incidence rates increasing steeply across CKM stages. The risk for incident HF was 3.6-fold higher at CKM stage 3 and 8.3-fold higher at CKM stage 4, with CKM stage 2 as the reference (P for trend < .001).
  • A similar stepwise pattern emerged for the composite outcome. Risk for the composite outcome was 1.1-fold higher at CKM stage 2, 2.1-fold higher at CKM stage 3, and 3.3-fold higher at CKM stage 4, using CKM stage 0 or 1 as the reference (P for trend < .001).
  • Participants with higher CKM syndrome stages at visit 5 also experienced incrementally greater adverse cardiac remodeling by visit 7, including steeper declines in left ventricular systolic and diastolic function (P for trend < .001 for all).

IN PRACTICE:

“[Our] findings highlight the potential of the CKM syndrome framework to enhance HF risk stratification and potentially HF prevention efforts among older adults,” the authors wrote.

SOURCE:

The study was led by Mats C. Højbjerg Lassen, MD, of Brigham and Women’s Hospital and Harvard Medical School in Boston. It was published online on April 1 in Circulation.

LIMITATIONS:

The researchers did not assess subclinical atherosclerotic CVD. They excluded 7.1% of participants with echocardiography data available at visit 5 due to missing staging variables and limited longitudinal echocardiographic analyses to survivors who returned for visit 7.

DISCLOSURES:

The ARIC study was funded by the National Heart, Lung, and Blood Institute; the National Institutes of Health; and the Department of Health and Human Services. Several authors reported receiving research grants, consulting fees, and/or lecture fees from, participating in clinical trial committees for, or serving on advisory boards for multiple pharmaceutical, healthcare, and research organizations.

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This article was created using several editorial tools, including AI, as part of the process. Human editors reviewed this content before publication.


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