TOPLINE:

EU cancer mortality rates are projected to decline by 7.8% in men and 5.9% in women by 2026, with female lung cancer mortality showing signs of stabilization around 12.5 per 100,000 in most countries. The study predicts approximately 1,230,000 cancer deaths in the EU for 2026, reflecting an increase in absolute numbers due to population aging despite falling mortality rates.

METHODOLOGY:

• Lung cancer is the leading cause of cancer-related deaths in Europe, but male lung cancer mortality rates have been falling since the 1990s, reflecting long-term declines in male smoking prevalence. For women in the EU, no favorable lung cancer trend has been observed.
• Cancer death certifications and population data from 1970 to 2022 were obtained from the World Health Organization and United Nations databases for the EU, France, Germany, Italy, Poland, Spain, and the UK.
• Analysis included sex- and age-specific mortality rates for 5-year age groups (0-4 years up to 85+ years) for all cancers combined and major cancer sites, with age-standardised rates based on the world standard population.
• Linear regression models, based on the most recent age-specific trends identified by Poisson joinpoint regression, were utilized to estimate deaths in 2026.
• Researchers computed the number of averted deaths between 1989 and 2026 by applying the 1988 peak rate to subsequent populations.

TAKEAWAY:

• For 2026, researchers predicted EU cancer mortality rates of 114.1/100,000 men (-7.8% vs 2020-2022) and 74.7/100,000 women (-5.9%), with approximately 1,230,000 expected cancer deaths.
• Lung cancer mortality continues to decrease markedly among men, whereas rates among women are predicted to level off around 12.5/100,000 in all considered countries except Spain (+2.4%).
• Age-specific analyses revealed that lung cancer mortality declines are confined to women aged < 65 years, while unfavourable trends continued in older age groups.
• Approximately 7.3 million total cancer deaths (5.0 million in men, 2.3 million in women) have been avoided in the EU since the peak observed in 1988.

IN PRACTICE:

“Strengthening taxation, implementing advertising bans, creating smoke-free environments, and providing cessation support are essential for closing regional and socioeconomic gaps, and achieving sustained reductions in lung cancer mortality across Europe,” the authors of the study wrote.

SOURCE:

The study was led by Carlo La Vecchia, Department of Clinical Sciences and Community Health, University of Milan in Milan, Italy. It was published online in Annals of Oncology.

LIMITATIONS:

The predictions are based on official World Health Organization death certification data from the most populous European countries, which have high coverage and quality. However, the authors noted that findings should be interpreted with caution because they assume that factors driving the latest trends will not change in the short term. The predictions rely on age-specific joinpoint models, which may be less sensitive to shifts in cohort trends.

DISCLOSURES:

The study was supported by the Associazione Italiana per la Ricerca sul Cancro Foundation through grant number 22987 to E. Negri. Moreover, C. Santucci and C. La Vecchia declared receiving support from EU funding within the NextGenerationEU-MUR PNRR Extended Partnership initiative through grant number PEOQOO00007, INF-ACT. The funding sources had no role in study design, data collection and analysis, decision to publish, or preparation of the manuscript.

This article was created using several editorial tools, including AI, as part of the process. Human editors reviewed this content before publication.