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TOPLINE:

The prevalence of three types of skin cancer has increased since 1990 and is projected to rise further through 2050, a global analysis has found.

METHODOLOGY:

• Researchers analyzed Global Burden of Disease (GBD) 2023 estimates for malignant melanoma, cutaneous squamous cell carcinoma (cSCC), and basal cell carcinoma (BCC) from 1990 to 2023.
• Outcomes were prevalence and disability-adjusted life-years (DALYs; years of life lost due to premature death plus years lived with disability), with subgroup analyses by sex, age group, and Sociodemographic Index (SDI) level.
• A Bayesian age-period-cohort model was used to project burden through 2050. BCC projections excluded 2005-2009 data because of a surveillance artifact, so 2010-2023 data were used for modeling.

TAKEAWAY:

• In 2023, there were more than 300 melanoma cases per 100,000 population in Oceania and more than 200 cSCC cases per 100,000 population in the US, with BCC rates highest in Oceania, North America, and Northern Europe.
• From 1990 to 2023, all three skin cancer types increased in low- and middle-SDI areas, with melanoma surging over 250% in East Asia and Andean Latin America but declining by 10.5% in North America.
• The incidence of cSCC and BCC increased by 154.1% and 34.6%, respectively, in North America during the same period.
• Estimated melanoma DALYs were projected to rise from 2 million in 2025 to more than 3.3 million in 2050 and SCC DALYs from 1.2 million to 4.0 million, with BCC DALYs approaching 5 million by 2050.

IN PRACTICE:

“Low- and middle-SDI settings demonstrated increasing trends across all three cancers, while high-SDI settings showed heterogeneous patterns with melanoma burden stabilizing in some regions and continued challenges in BCC management,” the authors wrote. “This GBD-based global analysis captures the rising burden in low- and middle-SDI regions — populations underrepresented in established high-income country registries,” they noted.

SOURCE:

This study was led by Youyou Zhou, MD, PhD, Department of Dermatology, Shenzhen People’s Hospital, The First Affiliated Hospital, School of Medicine, Southern University of Science and Technology, The Second Clinical Medical College, Jinan University, Shenzhen, Guangdong, China, and was published online on May 13 in JAMA Dermatology.

LIMITATIONS:

GBD estimates could underestimate burden in low-SDI settings because of incomplete reporting and limited healthcare infrastructure. Projections could be influenced by future public health policies and healthcare resource allocation.

DISCLOSURES:

This study received support from grants provided by the National Natural Science Foundation, the Shenzhen Science and Technology Program, and the Shenzhen People’s Hospital Physician Scientist Training Five Three Program. The authors did not declare any relevant conflicts of interest.

This article was created using several editorial tools, including AI, as part of the process. Human editors reviewed this content before publication.