TOPLINE:

A UK modelling study showed that reallocating spending from tobacco, confectionery, and gambling to other domestic sectors yielded net gains in employment, tax receipts, and national output.

METHODOLOGY:

• Researchers developed and used an open-source Commercial Determinants of Health Input-Output model to simulate UK macroeconomic changes using 2019 data.
• The study modelled a 10% decrease in national consumer expenditure on four unhealthy commodities (alcohol, tobacco, confectionery, and gambling).
• For this study, researchers assumed that 100% of the money saved from reduced expenditures was entirely reallocated to other domestic consumption categories.
• The model estimated impacts on production output, full-time employment, earnings, government tax receipts, and gross value added (GVA) across 105 product categories.

TAKEAWAY:

• A 10% reduction in spending on tobacco, confectionery, and gambling increased GVA by £1.859 billion (+0.09%), £0.389 billion (+0.02%), and £1.250 billion (+0.06%), respectively.
• A 10% reduction in spending on alcohol led to a small GVA loss (-£0.134 billion) as off-trade gains (+£2.543 billion) were offset by on-trade losses (-£2.677 billion).
• Reallocating spending from these sectors led to estimated employment gains of 31,450 jobs for tobacco, 6817 for confectionery, and 22,544 for gambling, corresponding to increases in total net earnings of employees (+£0.760 billion, +£0.167 billion, and +£0.552 billion, respectively).
• Tobacco showed the lowest break-even reallocation rate at 4%, meaning that the impact on GVA remained non-negative even if 96% of saved spending was not reallocated.

IN PRACTICE:

"Our analysis finds that reducing demand for tobacco, confectionary, gambling and off-trade alcohol could lead to overall positive consequences for the economy, with only on-trade alcohol showing a strong economic importance," the authors wrote.

"Although our findings relate to a UK-specific context, our conclusions and methodology generalise to other countries," they added.

SOURCE:

This study was led by Damon Morris, The University of Sheffield, Sheffield, England. It was published online on February 02, 2026, in Addiction.

LIMITATIONS:

The model assumed that statistical associations between elements of the input-output matrix remain fixed and do not change in response to expenditure changes on different commodities. Additionally, the model assumed no constraints on supply, meaning an increase in demand is always met by an increase in supply without price changes. Relationships between products in the input-output matrices are not causal estimates, and without standard errors, researchers were unable to conduct a probabilistic sensitivity analysis to quantify parameter uncertainty.

DISCLOSURES:

This study was supported by the UK Prevention Research Partnership, which received funding from multiple public organisations in the UK, The Health Foundation, and Wellcome. The authors declared having no conflicts of interest.

This article was created using several editorial tools, including AI, as part of the process. Human editors reviewed this content before publication.