TOPLINE

Among children and young people in schools in England, the prevalence of recorded autism more than doubled between 2016 and 2024, rising from 1.5% to 3.3%, largely driven by increasing identification in girls and a declining proportion of those with co-occurring intellectual disability.

METHODOLOGY

• Using data from the school census in England, researchers examined changes in the administrative prevalence of autism in children and young people between 2016 and 2024.
• They analysed annual data of approximately 8-8.5 million children and young people, representing about 93% of school-aged children and young people in England.
• The school census captured information on demographics, eligibility for free school meals, and special educational needs and disabilities (SEND) data for every child or young person in the state-funded education in England.
• Autism was defined as a child or young person having a recorded autism-specific SEND, documented in schools as either a primary or a secondary need.

TAKEAWAY

• The prevalence of recorded autism rose from 1.5% in 2016 to 3.3% in 2024, rising nearly fourfold among girls (0.4% to 1.5%) compared with a near doubling among boys (2.1% to 4.0%); the male-to-female ratio narrowed from 4.9:1 to 2.8:1. 
• The proportion of children and young people with autism and a co-occurring intellectual disability declined over the study period, whereas the proportion with social, emotional, and mental health needs increased from 9.2% to 14.3% and the proportion with speech, language, and communication needs rose from 12.5% to 16.8%.
• The increase in autism prevalence was smaller at the start and end of schooling but was most pronounced in year 7, during which children transitioned from primary to secondary education. 
• Compared with peers without a recorded SEND, children and young people with autism were more likely to be White British, eligible for free school meals, and speak English as a first language.

IN PRACTICE

"Since SEND records are a leading indicator of later demand for NHS and other services, there is a need to plan for adapting a range of settings including healthcare, higher education and workplaces to a wider autistic population," the authors wrote.

SOURCE

This study was led by David Frayman, Centre for Economic Performance, London School of Economics and Political Science, London, England. It was published online on August 18, 2026, in the Journal of Child Psychology and Psychiatry.

LIMITATIONS

Autism-specific SEND records generally aligned with clinical autism diagnoses but may also have included children and young people without formal specialist assessment. Diagnostic substitution could not be directly assessed. Diagnostic boundaries could not be evaluated because symptom data were unavailable.

DISCLOSURES

The study was supported by the Baily Thomas Charitable Fund. The authors declared having no competing or potential conflicts of interest.

This article was created using several editorial tools, including AI, as part of the process. Human editors reviewed this content before publication.