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The weekly acute respiratory infections report, a French surveillance bulletin that tracks trends in acute respiratory infections — including influenza, bronchiolitis, and COVID — indicates that influenza virus circulation has accelerated across all age groups since early December 2025. A first epidemic peak in France is expected in weeks 51-52, that is, during the year-end holidays.
This forecast draws on trends observed in recent weeks and in prior years. Its accuracy has been strengthened by mathematical tools that factor in the many variables shaping epidemic dynamics (behaviour, holidays, the nature of circulating influenza viruses, etc.).
Developed by Santé publique France — the national public health agency — and the Institut Pasteur, using data from general practice, emergency departments, and virology labs, these tools can forecast the trajectory of the flu epidemic 4 weeks out and estimate when epidemic peaks are likely to occur. The two institutions will soon provide a dedicated space to view these results. For now, they are available in two formats:
- Panel A shows the expected 4-week trajectory, with the median and the 95% CI, as well as the medians of prior seasons (since 2014-2015).
- Panel B shows, in coloured bars, the probability of the epidemic peak by week.
These forecasts are useful for health authorities and clinicians, who can better prepare care capacity and preventive measures, even though they carry limitations (notably the reliability of underlying assumptions). With a 4-week lead time, there’s also hope the public can find time to get vaccinated.
This story was translated from Univadis France, part of the Medscape Professional network.
